If you have been following my blog about electric cargo bikes for a while, you know that I often make predictions about where the market for these bikes will go. Over time, many of my predictions have come to pass, but usually later or on a smaller scale than I had anticipated. For example, I wrote this almost a year ago:
I know what cargo biking will look like when it enters the mainstream, and I bet you do, too. We’ll see stores like Wal-Mart and Costco selling electric cargo bikes for about half the price of today’s models. They will be made in China, and probably designed there as well. When that day comes, I won’t know whether to cheer or cry…
That was one of my most audacious predictions, and one that I didn’t expect to happen any time soon. But let’s check where we are one year later. Available at Wal-Mart? Yes, but not electric cargo bikes, just electric bikes in their traditional form, priced between $400 and $800. Still, an electric bike for $400? That’s just unbelievable. Or maybe crazy – the bike has mixed reviews from customers on Amazon.
But as far as I can tell it’s not manufactured in China, and surely not designed there, so that part of my vision hasn’t arrived yet.
Or has it?
I was recently contacted by Tora Harris, founder of Juiced Riders, a small company with a new electric cargo bike that is – you guessed it – manufactured in China. At first, I was reluctant to write about yet another cargo bike that I’ve never seen nor ridden, but the ODK Utility Bicycle represents several interesting steps that make it worthy of comment.
ODK Utility Bicycle
The first thing that caught my eye is the ODK’s form factor. In size and shape, it’s an intermediate step between a traditional electric bike and a heavy-duty cargo bike. That could be interesting for people who want the ability to carry something, but who don’t need to carry loads of construction materials (or passengers) on a regular basis. Happily, the price is somewhat less than the big bikes as well, reportedly $1999. Although that’s still far from the halved price point I thought we might see someday, the ODK’s specs are much better than the discount bikes that are likely to compete for the low end of the market. For example, it has disc brakes on both wheels, an ample motor big enough to power the bike without pedaling (500W), and a double-size battery that provides plenty of range (all according to the company’s specs). The included accessories like mud guards, chain guard, light, and bell are nice touches.
And this is another bike that qualifies for my third generation label. We are now well within this generation of electric cargo bikes that have been designed and manufactured with electric assistance in mind from their inception.
But for me, the most interesting part of this bike is the story behind it, which the founder has documented in a 79-minute video on their web site, detailing the process of working with various Chinese manufacturers to build it. At first, I wasn’t sure I would have the time or patience to watch the whole thing. But as I continued watching, I became more and more fascinated by the country, the people, and the process of building an electric bike from scratch. It provides a unique peek into a country that many worry will dominate the globe. If you don’t have an inclination to watch the video yourself, here are a few of my impressions:
Chinese workers wind the coils of electric motors by hand? I would have bet money that a machine did that. The women who wind the coils are virtually machines themselves. It’s mind-numbing work that they perform with almost robotic speed and efficiency. Building batteries is also much more labor-intensive than I would have guessed.
Speaking of women, they make up the majority of the work force in these factories, and they do most of the hard or intricate work. Women are also present at the business lunches and dinners (of which there are many in this video), but most of the business managers are men.
If you want to build a complex product in China, you better like Chinese food, a lot!
This film won’t allay any fears of China as a competitor in world markets. From the earnest engineers of a tiny company with 5 employees working out of a garage, to mega-manufacturers who produce millions of units per month, the Chinese people are hungry for success through hard work. I’m hoping it’s not a permanent condition, but the US seems distracted by political and fiscal issues in comparison.
Even though my inclination is not to recommend a Chinese product over ones made in America or Canada, it’s hard not to be impressed by the dedication and perseverence that produced this bike, especially when you see all of the human faces behind it.
In the end, I’ve discovered neither an urge to cheer nor to cry over this development. Instead, I’m left with a quiet smile.
Today’s topic strays from my usual focus on electric cargo bikes, but it relates to my broader interest in finding transportation options that are practical for my family and sustainable for the planet. With these criteria in mind, where does the all-electric Nissan Leaf fit in? To answer that, we recently traded our Toyota Prius for a new Leaf. Since then, I’ve received many questions from friends and family about this car, and I’m hoping to address some of these in this article.
Is it practical?
Nissan Leaf
The Leaf is proving itself to be very practical for our family – the four of us fit into it comfortably (our collective height and width are probably somewhat less than the average American family), and our normal daily driving falls easily within the range of the Leaf’s battery. We drive very smoothly using the Leaf’s “ECO” mode, but the hilly terrain reduces the Leaf’s range to about 80 miles rather than the frequently quoted 100 miles. The range drops to about 70 miles if we run the air conditioner.
The Leaf works well for us because it complements the capabilities of our other vehicles: a mini-van for hauling bigger loads of people or stuff (or for longer trips), the electric cargo bike for short errands (usually just one person and cooperative weather conditions), and traditional bikes for recreation or short commutes to a bus stop. We initially thought the Leaf could handle medium-distance trips with breaks every couple of hours for a quick charge (a 480V charger can charge the battery up to 80% in less than half an hour), but Nissan is warning owners not to use quick chargers more often than once a day to prevent damage to the battery. There is some debate on the owners’ forums about whether that is conservative advice promulgated by cautious lawyers, or whether there are sound engineering reasons behind it. (By the way, if you’re thinking about getting a Leaf, it might be worth your time to visit the forums at MyNissanLeaf.com and delve into various pros and cons posted by current Leaf owners.)
Range and carrying capacity are two facets of practicality; cost of acquisition and cost of operation are also important. Well, let’s face it, the purchase price of the Leaf is high compared to similar gasoline-powered cars, even with the $7500 tax incentive. But compared to a well-trimmed Prius, it’s not so far out of line. We chose to lease the Leaf, partly because the $7500 tax break is applied immediately to the lease (rather than waiting until next April to get the refund if you choose to buy the car). Also, I’m not sure what the resale value of a first-generation electric car is going to be in 39 months. I’m hoping that battery technology will improve quickly and that we will have compelling alternatives to consider when the lease expires. For example, the all-electric Ford Focus may provide decent competition for Nissan when it arrives next year.
Of course, it’s the Leaf’s cost per mile that is really amazing. With gas at $3.90/gallon (that’s the average price in Washington as I write), the Leaf is more than three times less expensive to operate than our Prius. That surprised me. Driving the Prius, we were averaging about 45 miles per gallon, or about 9 cents per mile. Last week, we drove the Leaf 310 miles for $8.73 worth of electricity (at $0.10 per kWh) – less than 3 cents a mile. It’s not unreasonable to imagine that you could make up for the difference in price between a Prius and the Leaf in fuel savings, especially in a place like Wyoming, where electricity rates are 40% lower than those in the Seattle area.
And we love the convenience of plugging the car into the charger in our garage rather than figuring out when we need to fit a visit to the gas station into our driving schedule.
Is it luxurious?
Leaf backup camera with guide lines
The depth and breadth of amenities in our Leaf also surprised me. I’m comparing it to our Toyota Prius, which was a “Touring Edition” with extras like leather seats and fog lights. But it was a 2007 model, so the comparison with a 2011 Leaf might not be completely fair. I think it’s still worth describing what surprised me.
Proximity keys. Our Prius also had proximity keys, which allow you to unlock and start the car without removing the key from your pocket. Once you get used to them, it’s hard to imagine fishing through your pocket or purse for your keys while balancing an armload of groceries. One thing I liked about the Leaf: you can specify whether you want the proximity key to unlock just one door, or all the doors. I like the latter option, so my family can enter the car without further action on my part.
Backup camera. The Prius had a backup camera as well, but the Leaf overlays a graphic to show where the car is headed. The rectangular shape of the graphic bends as you turn the wheel, so you can see where you will be if you continue on your current course. It also overlays range lines so you can tell what objects might be getting close to your bumper.
Multiple Bluetooth devices. The car can connect to my iPhone for hands-free calling, and simultaneously connect to my daughter’s iPod to stream her music over the stereo. Setting that up required a few too many menu choices on the touch screen for my liking, but it seems to remember the configuration so that we don’t have to set it up each time.
Speed-dependent volume. You can tell the stereo to automatically increase the volume as your speed increases. Nice touch!
Automatic headlights. I’m surprised that our Prius didn’t have those.
ECO mode. The ECO driving mode will theoretically increase your driving range by 10-15%. It does this partly by reducing the snappiness of acceleration and engaging regenerative braking when you back off on the accelerator. Although less energetic responsiveness might bother some people, I love it! If you pay attention to the traffic in front of you, you can drive so that you only rarely need to touch the brake pedal. In slow or stop-and-go traffic, it’s nice not to continually bounce back and forth between the accelerator and the brake. But there’s a disconcerting caveat: the regenerative braking only kicks in when the battery has less than a full charge. When the battery is full, you might take your foot off the accelerator thinking you will start to brake, but instead you just begin to coast. That seems slightly risky to me, although I understand why you can’t put more energy into a battery that’s already full. To remedy this, some Leaf owners don’t charge their batteries all the way to capacity. They get regenerative braking as soon as they get on the road, but their range is correspondingly reduced.
Decent menus. In general, I found the Leaf’s menus easier to understand than those in the Prius. I was able to accomplish some tasks that I was never able to figure out in the Prius. However, they are still fairly primitive compared to the ease of use of the iPhone, and the voice commands seem pretty clunky.
Not surprisingly, there are some disappointments to balance out my overall positive impression of the Leaf:
Silly legal stuff. Every time you start the car, you have to give it permission to transmit data to a web site that tracks interesting data about your efficiency. There doesn’t seem to be a way to opt in or opt out permanently, so you have to press the OK or Cancel button every time. That annoys everyone on the owners’ forums.
ECO mode selection. To shift into ECO mode, you have to double-shift the gear selector. The car doesn’t remember your preference, so you have to double-shift every time you turn the car on or shift from reverse. There are many comments on the owners’ forum that suggest I’m not the only one who finds this suboptimal.
Inconsistent data. The energy usage displayed by the car, by the web site, and by our home charger are only roughly correlated. It makes me wonder about the accuracy of these measurements when they can’t agree with each other.
Cheap carpet. I think it’s supposed to be environmentally friendly, but it looks like Nissan skimped in this area.
Uncomfortable seats. Although they don’t bother me, my wife finds the Leaf’s seats much less comfortable than the Prius. The head rest juts forward and hits her ponytail, and there isn’t an adjustment to tilt the head rest back.
Shiny plastic. There is a fair amount of shiny plastic in the cabin, which shows fingerprints and scratches more readily than a matte finish would. The seat fabric is also very light in color, and will probably show more dirt than the leather seats in the Prius did.
Implications for our energy grid
Although the Leaf is reducing our gasoline consumption, it is increasing our use of electricity significantly (about 60%). I watch our electricity usage on a daily basis, because I like to see how the solar panels on our roof are performing. The good news is that the output of our solar panels matches the Leaf’s electricity consumption fairly closely. We celebrated the anniversary of our solar panels in the beginning of June. They produced 6,500 kWh of electricity last year – an average of 18 kWh per day. Our Leaf is using an average of 13 kWh per day, so we’ll still have a little extra solar electricity to offset our household usage. And we’ll be driving carbon-free and penny-free!
But perhaps that method of accounting is a little too rosy. The chart below shows our hourly electricity consumption and production, and it illustrates some issues that will impact our power grid if electric vehicles become more commonplace. The large blue bars on the left side of the chart are due to the Leaf recharging between midnight and 4 AM. The spike at 10 PM shows the impact of the Leaf starting another recharge cycle at the end of the day. The yellow bars in the middle of the chart track electricity produced by our solar panels.
Our electricity usage and production on a sunny June day
The good news is that our solar panels produced enough electricity to charge the Leaf and cover our household usage. We even had a couple of spare kilowatt hours to sell back to the electric company. But the fact that our consumption and production are not coincident is a matter of concern. If all our neighbors bought Leafs and solar panels, the grid would have to absorb a surge of production during the day, and then give it back so everyone can charge their cars each evening. Storing large amounts of electricity is neither simple nor cheap.
If mismatched consumption and demand is an issue on a sunny day in June, there are bigger issues to worry about in December. Our solar panels produce roughly a tenth of their potential power on a dark winter day, and it can drop to zero after a light snowfall. The Leaf will have the same energy appetite year-round, or maybe even more in winter when we start to use the heater. Where will that electricity come from? Does this transportation strategy scale well if electric cars by the thousands start driving on Seattle’s streets?
Leaf vs. cargo bike
I love the Leaf, and it’s nice to be able to transport my family comfortably using solar power. But it’s still a car, and our current mono-culture of car-based transportation can’t be the ultimate answer to the challenges facing our environment or our society. I’m hoping that the debut of electric cars doesn’t distract us from the long-term problems posed by cities designed to accommodate cars (and not much else!)
It’s great that I can drive a vehicle that’s 3 times more cost-efficient than the Prius, but my electric cargo bike in maximum-assist mode is ten times cheaper per mile than the Leaf. There are still many errands I can do in approximately the same amount of time with the bike compared to a car (see here for an example). The bike gives me an opportunity to see my neighbors and get a little exercise in the process.
There are actually people in my neighborhood and at my kids’ school who know my name because of my bike. They would have never seen me or taken a moment to say hello if I had been driving a car. In my opinion, the quality of my life and our neighborhood would be diminished as a result.
It has been 7 months since I posted my first article mentioning the Trek Transport+. After a very long fall and winter, the bike appears to be available to order. Trek has removed the “available late fall” qualification from their web site, and dealers in my area would be happy to take my order. With a price tag of $2809.99, it’s a little more expensive than the aggressive target of $2679 that was originally announced. It’s also $100 or $200 more than its competitors, the Yuba el Mundo and the Kona Electric Ute, but definitely worth considering for features like the BionX motor and integrated lighting (see my original article for further details).
However, my enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that I have never seen this bike, and it’s unlikely that I will in the near future. I’ve inquired at my local Trek dealers (there are quite a few in my area), and they don’t have any Transport+ bikes to show. They can’t tell me when or if they will see one.
Reviews of the Transport+ are rare on the web as well. The most complete review I found was from Bike Radar. The author loaded the bike and rode it for 6 weeks in a variety of conditions, so that review answered many of my questions.
If I were to review the bike myself, I would concentrate a little more on hill-climbing, braking, and range. I’d also check out the handling of the bike with loads that are carried a little farther to the rear than comparable bikes (including my own Rans Hammer Truck). But unless I can make special arrangements with Trek or a local dealer, that opportunity doesn’t look likely in the foreseeable future.
I’m both excited and frustrated with this state of affairs. For now, I’ll turn to my readers. If you have any experience with the Transport+, let us know what you think in the comments below.
For the past week, Seattle has been blessed with cold, sparkling clear weather. The crisp air makes the snow-capped mountains that surround us appear 50 miles closer. Did I mention we live in paradise?
It’s also extra-tempting to hop on the bike and enjoy a few moments in the sun as it slinks along the horizon. But be careful of the frost on the road! That’s a lesson my wife just learned the hard way.
On the first workday of the new year, she was riding her bike to the bus transfer station. As she approached a turn at the bottom of our hill, she stayed in the center of the road, well away from the frosty edges. Unfortunately, it wasn’t apparent that even the center of the street was polished with a microscopically-thin layer of black ice. Just enough to take down a bike, swift and hard, without a moment’s notice.
My wife landed on her hip, shoulder, and head, then slid for several yards before coming to a stop. We’re grateful to report that she sustained only minor bruises. That positive outcome can be attributed to three things. First, in the middle of the car lane, she was well away from the curb and other obstacles that might have complicated the fall. Second, the car behind her was following at a respectful distance, and she didn’t have to worry about it sliding over her. Finally, her bike helmet prevented a nasty bump to the head and kept the pavement from scraping her face.
To helmet or not?
This incident has caused me to reexamine my opinions about bike helmet use. Only a few weeks ago, I was taken to task by a reader for comments I had made regarding a helmetless rider on a video about electric bikes (here). The reader referred me to a site called cyclehelmets.org, which cites various research showing that mandatory helmet laws reduce bike riding by up to 30% without reducing bicycle-related head injuries. There are various charts like this one:
I won’t dwell on this, but the implication is that skyrocketing bike helmet use did not significantly reduce head injuries. And the rate of bicycle injuries is similar to that of pedestrians, who remain unhelmeted in Australia at this time.
The other side of the argument (which has been going on for many years) is presented on sites like this one from the Bicycle Helmet Safety Institute.
I’m not an expert on this. My family and I have been serious about riding bikes for only three years, and besides my wife’s recent fall, we’ve experienced only one other. That was when I simulated a panic stop with a heavily loaded bike on wet pavement (you can read that bit of foolhardiness here if you’re curious). Our limited experience suggests that bike helmets do more good than harm, and we’ll keep them on.
But legally requiring others to wear helmets is a more complicated issue. Given the reduction in ridership that follows mandatory helmet laws, I’m not convinced that there is an overall increase in safety. Having more bikes in the streets increases the safety of individual riders through better visibility, infrastructure, and driver familiarity.
I realize that this is a contradiction relative to my opinions about mandatory seat belt laws. Those laws have led to documented reductions in highway deaths. That’s good for individuals and society. On the other hand, helmet laws may save a few individual bonks on the head, but may reduce benefits to society as a whole and bike riders in particular. Until there is a pretty strong case otherwise, I think our default stance should be individual responsibility.
Slippery Seattle
The other lesson for my family is that we should stay off bikes when the temperature dips below 37 degrees Fahrenheit. I realize that people all over the world ride bikes in temperatures colder than that (we routinely did so in Copenhagen), but Seattle has some special considerations. Our hills, our minimal bike lanes, and the mixture of car and bike traffic are part of the difference.
But perhaps the biggest factor is salt.
When it snows in Copenhagen, the bike lanes are plowed even before the streets are (that always amazed us). And then the lanes are liberally seasoned with salt.
This has two results: we never slipped during our winter in Copenhagen (admittedly, the 2007-2008 winter was an unusually mild one there), and my bike displayed an appalling amount of rust after only one season. In Seattle, car dealers often make a big deal about used cars that are “local”. You don’t want some rusty hunk of junk from some other state that uses salt, they say.
But there’s a very good reason why Seattle doesn’t salt its streets and probably never will: salmon. Adding salt to the already oily brew that washes off our roadways could deliver a potentially lethal shock to young salmon. One might wonder if it’s appropriate to endanger human lives on slick roads for the welfare of fish.
Well, if you haven’t lived in the Pacific Northwest, it might be difficult to appreciate the importance of salmon. Fresh salmon are not just an important food (featured in almost every menu of local restaurants), they are integral to our economy, our culture, and our environment. Children study salmon in school, and we celebrate them with community festivals in the fall. The incredible migration upstream to spawn is a metaphor for dedication to a goal in the face of overwhelming obstacles. In the process, salmon deliver literally millions of tons of nutrients from the ocean to our rain forests, enabling a rich ecology that couldn’t exist otherwise.
You would think our love for salmon and a generally eco-conscious mindset among Seattle residents would spur us to develop alternatives to car-based transportation. But instead we have endless arguments and litigation. We disagree on the placement of light-rail lines, expansion and tolling of our bridges, replacement of the earthquake-damaged highway which is a blight on the city, and how to fund buses and ferries. There are squabbles between residents, transportation agencies, the legislature, and city councils.
I think of this as a testament to the tenacity of our car culture. It has taken over a century to develop our current transportation strategy, and it may take the better part of a century to unwind it. I’m hoping that in ten or twenty years, we will see a visible reduction in the steady stream of cars that crosses a bridge we see from our house.
Change at that pace is likely to be appreciated only by the truly patient.
An eventful year has passed since my first New Year status report. A lot has happened in my life and the cargo biking scene that would have strained my imagination last January. And a few things didn’t happen that I confidently anticipated. I would be thrilled to repeat last year’s progress in 2011, but I’ll try to avoid making any bold and probably inaccurate predictions and instead focus on recent events.
Manufacturer hibernation
After a flurry of announcements in early fall, there has been little news from cargo bike manufacturers during the past couple of months. Perhaps they think that most Americans aren’t looking for new bikes when so many states are buried in snow. While that seems like a reasonable assumption, my blog has seen no seasonal decrease in interest. On the contrary, every month of 2010 saw significant increases in readership, with literally thousands of unique visitors in December alone. And that was despite the fact that I posted no new articles in December and only two short articles early in November!
But perhaps those statistics deserve closer scrutiny. For example, the top search keyword for my blog (at about 15%) was “fixie”, due to an article I wrote last September. In that post, I predicted that non-electric bikes would someday be viewed like the fixie bikes of today: idealogically pure, but not practical for the average commuter (at least if you live anywhere with moderate hills or wind or traffic intersections). Imagine the horror of someone looking for information on fixies and landing on a blog dedicated to electric cargo bikes – about as polar opposite as you can get in the biking world! And I’m probably skewing future results by mentioning fixies again in this article. Sigh…
On the bright side, 2010 saw the release of two electric cargo bikes (the Ute and elMundo) and the announcement of three more (the Transport+, several models from Onya cycles, and Urban Arrow). Waiting for availability of these latter bikes has required considerable patience. Despite my frequent criticism, Trek’s web site still claims the Transport+ will be available in late fall (they don’t mention which year!). Hey, Trek, is there anyone awake over there?
Some features and prices have evolved since my earlier reviews of the Ute, elMundo, and Transport+. All of these bikes now sell for about $2600, so they must now be evaluated on features (and availability) rather than price. I am pleased to see continued evolution of the elMundo, both in the bike’s features (like the rear disc brake) and the increasing accuracy of the specs published on their web site. For example, I complained in an earlier article that the power rating of their motor seemed inflated, and now it’s fixed. Thanks, Yuba!
I don’t have any news on the Urban Arrow, but I received some interesting feedback from Todd at Clever Cycles regarding my article about it:
Our wariness about the high-speed braking characteristics of bikes in this format [front loader] is why we never pushed the assist concept with them. It’s not just the brakes per se, but the lightly loaded front wheel without a big load, and the relatively small amount of rubber on the road relative to the total kinetic energy of the vehicle. The crashes didn’t happen from not being able to stop the wheels, but when the wheels did in fact stop and the tires lost purchase. Large footprint lower-pressure Big Apple tires, modest motor power with a sensible speed limit, relatively low vehicle mass: these are more reasons to be optimistic that Urban Arrow might be “the one.”
This is a point that I hadn’t considered before. In the past, I’ve worried about braking performance of loaded cargo bikes, and I found that increased load seems to also increase the braking performance of the tires (at least, on dry pavement). The performance of an unloaded tire is therefore of some concern, especially for people riding on steep hills. I’m optimistic that the Urban Arrow will be a good bike for relatively flat terrain; I will be quite interested to see how it performs in our neighborhood.
My bike
My Hammer Truck continues to work beautifully. But ironically, it’s not getting much use right now. I used to have a great biking circuit: I would bike with the kids to school, then bike to the Y for a workout, pick up groceries on the way home, and bike back to school to pick the kids up in the afternoon. However, my daughter now rides the bus to her new school, and my son likes to walk with his friends to school. My wife joined the Y, and now we drive there together at 5:00 in the morning. My son joined a gymnastics club which is a 30-minute commute by car, so I pick up groceries on the way home from taking him.
With these changes to our family schedule, I have to invent opportunities to ride the bike, and there isn’t much incentive to do that in the wet winter weather of the Pacific Northwest. When I do get the chance, it feels quite luxurious, and increases my nostalgia for the lifestyle we had in Copenhagen. Some days I spend 2 or 3 hours in the car – a nightmare! We bought a used Prius to increase our gas mileage while we await the arrival of our electric Leaf (perhaps as much as 5 months from now), but I’m discouraged that the layout of our city and the demands of our busy lives make it so difficult to pursue bike-centered transportation.
Kids on board
Speaking of transporting kids, I was recently introduced to a wonderful blog focused on carrying children on bikes: http://totcycle.com. The blog includes a great survey of the options, and it’s broader in scope than anything I’ve written on this subject because it includes non-electric alternatives. If you have young ones, check it out. The photos of kids napping on various bicycle configurations is heartwarming. I only wish I had started biking when my kids were younger.
Looking forward
I recently read an interview with an oil industry analyst who thinks we will see $5/gallon gas in the U.S. by 2012. He thinks this is possible not because of any near-term shortage of oil, but due to fear of shortages as the world’s economies recover.
If this turns out to be true, the timing isn’t great. Expensive fuel will either inhibit the long-awaited economic recovery, or it will spur inflation if our economy manages to power through it.
If there’s a bright side to this prediction, the price of gas is probably the most significant factor in determining how many bicyclists there are on U.S. streets. However, I would rather see people choose bikes for all their benefits rather than because they have a financial gun to their heads. But no matter how it happens, bicycles will play an increasing role in our transportation options. For solo riders with relatively short commutes, a bicycle just makes too much sense from the standpoint of energy expended per mile traveled. And because electric assistance extends the range and lowers the effort for a broader section of our community, it really is possible to see bikes in numbers we’ve never seen in modern America.
I said I wouldn’t make predictions, but if 2011 isn’t the year of the electric bike, no one will be more surprised than I.
Today I was eagerly searching for a Trek dealer in the Seattle area who might have the new Transport+ cargo bike available for a test ride. I knew I was being a little optimistic, but several months ago a Trek marketer told me the bike would be available by November. Trek’s web site continues to say “Available late fall”, and there’s even a brief video review from ElectricBikeReport.com.
But no luck. The best I could hope for at local bike shops was late February of 2011. The marketer that gave me the more ambitious date is now out of the country and apparently not answering email.
Perhaps I’ll just need to be patient for the next 4 months, but I find this a little discouraging. It reminds me of the glacially slow rollout of the Electric Ute, and I expected something different from Trek. Instead, the introduction of the Transport+ is looking just as cautious as the Ute, and I’m wondering why.
Then I found this blog entry from the president of Trek, asking his customers to help him make the case to his market forecaster that this is a bike that will generate interest. What the #@%!? Maybe this is a clever ploy to increase buzz, but it’s not the approach I hoped the company would take to build this market.
I found another review of the Transport+ that looks encouraging, but in the details it trimmed 100W from the power of the motor, and nearly $500 from the price. If these specs were true it could make the Transport+ even more attractive to the mass market (if a bit less attractive to us hill dwellers). However, since these details conflict with Trek’s web site, I suspect they are not accurate.
In any case, the clock is ticking. Unless competitors slip their schedules, there will be other interesting bikes to consider in 2011, such as those from Onya and Urban Arrow. I’m excited to see this race heating up, but I’m disappointed if the starting gun has actually been delayed for a few months.
P.S. If anyone at Trek is listening, I would be happy to present your side of the story if you would like to tell it!
Today I found a relatively new web site (started in June) that reviews electric bikes and developments in the industry: ElectricBikeReport.com. Aside from frequent articles, the web site includes a section on electric cargo bikes. At this point, the site is a little rough – maybe half-way between a hobbyist blog and a professional site, but it has potential to develop into a great hub for people who are shopping for an electric bike, tracking recent developments, or maintaining the e-bike they already own. The web site creator has been in the industry for some time and has worked in bike shops. He seems enthusiastic and committed to pursuing this as a real business venture (he sells some merchandise and derives income from ads on the site).
This is another step in the development of electric bikes that I’ve been hoping to see. We need people who can make a living by providing helpful information as well as selling and servicing these products. Even though I enjoy blogging about electric cargo bikes as an interesting hobby, I will gladly turn the reins over to professionals when that day comes. I’ll be watching ElectricBikeReport.com to see if it or other sites like it make MyCargoBike.net superfluous.
Last month I wrote an article describing various internal hub transmissions as alternatives to the derailleur-gear system found on most bikes in the U.S. I was especially intrigued by the updated NuVinci hub, which uses a clever mechanism consisting of rotating balls in a fluid bath. A friend directed me to this blog post, which (along with the comments that followed) only increased my interest in the possibilities of a Nuvinci-based cargo bike.
A few days ago, I received the October 2010 issue of A to B magazine. If you aren’t familiar with that publication, it is a British magazine that reviews various bikes, often with a heavy emphasis on folding and electric models. I’ve learned a lot from reading it, and I love the attention and detail they put into testing and describing each bike. However, because it is so focused on Britain and Europe, I often have to translate into my American experience almost as if it were written in a foreign language.
Raleigh 360
In any case, the latest issue includes a review of the Raleigh 360 electric bike. Although it isn’t a cargo bike, my interest was piqued because it uses a crank-mounted motor (and integrated battery) driving a NuVinci 360 hub. That sounded like a really interesting combination to me.
The review does a good job of describing the technical details of the hub and how it works. Their critique of its performance was mostly positive, and I would highly recommend reading it if you are considering the NuVinci hub (I believe an electronic copy of the magazine can be purchased for a few dollars; a year subscription costs 11 pounds). But there were also a few caveats that gave me something to think about when considering the hills I must contend with:
We mentioned above that the shift quality gets heavier as pedal pressure increases. Add the stonking torque of an electric motor and the shift more or less seizes up. There are two ways round this: you can either relax your effort, which frees the shifter but rather negates the advantage of using CVT [continuously variable transmission], or you can twist the shifter with a gentle steady pressure. This allows the NuVinci to change gear at its own pace – you soon get to grips with the technique. The high top gear results in a time of 31 minutes on our ten-mile commuter ride, at an average of 18.9mph (yes, we know it’s not exactly ten miles). This is rarified territory for an electric bike, and the Cytronex is the only legal bike that outpaces it. Compared to similar crank drives, this bike is broadly one to six minutes faster over this sort of range, which doesn’t sound much, but it’s noticeably quicker. That’s not to say it’s more efficient though. The Raleigh 360′s high top gear, and gloopy happenings in the hub, result in power consumption of 14Wh/mile, which is unusually high for a normally efficient bike like this. If you like to commute in fast, furious style, power consumption might not be your top priority, but a clear picture is beginning to emerge: the NuVinci is smooth, fast and tolerably efficient on the flat, but a real pudding on hills.
There is a lot more detail in the 5-page article than I have included here. I’ve begun to see that there are two sides to the NuVinci story, and your local geography might be the determining factor whether it’s good technology for you.
About five months ago, I wrote an article called Dawn of the (U.S.) cargo bike revolution. At the time, the title seemed like a pretty big leap. I was extrapolating a new market and mode of transportation based on two barely-available cargo bikes with electric motor options.
If I was worried I was out on a limb last May, in retrospect I was just uncovering the tip of the iceberg. In the past few weeks, I’ve been overwhelmed by numerous electric cargo bike designs. I wish I could cover all of them in as much detail as my recent review of the Urban Arrow, but it takes a lot of time and energy to write reviews like that, and this is not a full-time job for me.
Onya Cycles
Onya Cycles is a San Francisco-based company with three different electric cargo bikes in the works. They are the brainchildren of inventor Saul Griffith, who won the MacArthur “Genius” award for a variety of projects he has initiated. Saul owned several cargo bikes and wanted to try his hand at correcting deficiencies he saw in each. His innovations range from the somewhat incremental to the fairly radical – definitely worth a mention here.
Onya’s bikes could fit under my “third generation” criteria (bikes designed with electric assistance as a central feature), but in contrast to the Urban Arrow, they will be available without the motor for people with flatter commutes or Lance Armstrong legs. The current BMC motor/battery option is the same for all three bikes and adds around $1300 to the price of each. The motor is rated at 600W (2000W peak) – these people have to face some of the steepest urban hills in the country, and they are serious about them! The battery provides 10 amp-hours at 48V - enough to provide assistance for about 20 miles. Onya bikes ride on 20″ wheels to increase torque and lower the center of gravity. They also have 160mm disc brakes on every wheel (did I mention these guys think about hills?)
Onya Mule
Onya’s “Mule” cycle won’t surprise regular readers of my blog. Like most of the bikes I’ve reviewed during the past year, it’s a longtail. However, it is the first assisted longtail available prebuilt from a manufacturer that adheres to the Xtracycle standard, which opens the door for Xtracycle-compatible accessories (rather than locking into accessories provided by the bike’s manufacturer). There are arguments on both sides whether Xtracycle standardization is a good thing, but it makes a lot of sense for a smaller company like Onya to leverage the standard. The target price of around $3000 (powered) is high compared to the competition, but if you’ve got hills, the heavy-duty brakes and motor might justify the premium price.
Onya E.T.
The “E.T.” cargo bike is an interesting new shape (at least, new for the U.S.) for transporting lighter loads (less than 50 pounds) with a more compact bike. With a normal-length wheel base, this might fit on standard bike racks if the front bucket doesn’t get in the way. Target release for both the Mule and the E.T. is early in 2012.
Onya Front End Loader
I saved the most interesting for last. The “Front End Loader” is the first serious electric tricycle that I know of. Besides the hill-hungry motor and three disc brakes, the suspension is very interesting. It allows you to lean the bike during turns, reducing the risk of lifting a wheel (or worse). The company is quite proud of the custom computer code they had to write to model and optimize the tilting mechanism. You can meet the inventor and watch the bike climbing hills and tilting through turns in this video:
Leaning Loader
If you want to see lots of hills and turns, here’s another video with pretty much nothing but that.
The Front End Loader is closer to release than the other two bikes. Onya has already sold 10 beta test Loaders for $4200 each. They realize that price is high, and hope to reduce it as they increase production volume.
The videos show the bike climbing significant hills with little or no pedaling. I watched that with a mixture of excitement, dread, and even a bit of skepticism. I’m excited because this was almost exactly my wish when I daydreamed about a perfect bike for my friends and neighbors last May. I asserted that people of all ages and abilities needed to be able to ride up a hill at a decent pace in order to make cargo bikes practical for a broad audience. Maybe that day is close at hand. A tricycle addresses concerns about balance at low speeds. However, I’m concerned that first-time bikers may hop on bikes with this kind of power and exceed their skill levels. A few unfortunate accidents could give the nascent market a black eye, and it might even produce legislation that could curtail the use of these bikes. I’ll have more to say on that later.
Finally, I’m a little skeptical because riding a bike up a hill at the claimed speed requires enormous amounts of power. I have questions about the battery’s ability to sustain that, and the motor’s ability to handle the heat that is generated. I’m hoping these are issues that a MacArthur genius can solve.
Regardless of how these bikes turn out, Onya Cycles is interesting in another respect. Like Urban Arrow, this is a company whose sole products are cargo bikes (and primarily electric). These companies represent a bold bet that the electric cargo biking market is here to stay. Unlike Trek and Kona, they don’t have traditional bikes to fall back on if interest in cargo biking stumbles.
I am further encouraged that these companies are not making a bunch of “me too” products. At this point, each of the bikes I’ve mentioned in this blog might address a fairly small niche. But taken together, they cover a pretty broad range of riders and uses. We’re not growing a mono-culture crop here. Just as biodiversity indicates a healthy ecosystem, a variety of cargo biking designs bodes well for the health of this kind of transportation.
Once again, I’m looking at developments I didn’t expect to see so soon. However, I know what cargo biking will look like when it enters the mainstream, and I bet you do, too. We’ll see stores like Wal-mart and Costco selling electric cargo bikes for about half the price of today’s models. They will be made in China, and probably designed there as well. When that day comes, I won’t know whether to cheer or cry…
Advanced Vehicle Design
Speaking of different designs, a German company (formerly British) named Advanced Vehicle Design produces quadricycles for business with a couple of motor choices. Another first: electric-assisted recumbents! While these might be expensive for individuals, they provide an impressive way for businesses to burnish their eco-friendly credentials. And they look cool:
AVD Truck
AVD Van
AVD Taxi
But where can you drive them? I’ve been trying to figure out how they fit into the vehicle code of my state. There are regulations pertaining to medium-speed electric vehicles (speed limited to 45 mph), and there are rules for electric bicycles. But I’m left scratching my head: where could I legally drive a quadricycle? In the bike lane? Probably won’t fit. On the road with car traffic? That would be an annoying obstacle for drivers on some of our faster roads, even with electric assistance. Perhaps these vehicles are really only useful in big cities, although there are plenty of opportunities there.
Legal infrastructure
After our year of living in Copenhagen, it’s easy to see how far the physical infrastructure in most American cities needs to evolve to support lower-speed and lower-energy transportation choices. The legal infrastructure pertaining to electric bikes also needs to evolve – that became increasingly clear as I perused the Washington State Vehicle Code. Different statutes from state to state and country to country impede progress. On the other hand, I fear that regulations developed in the absence of a real understanding of these vehicles will go overboard and unreasonably restrict them.
For example, I have a friend who does a good job of tracking biking trails on his blog and trail network website. He alerted me to a recent ruling that restricts use of electric bikes on a trail near Aspen, Colorado. The bewildering varieties and capabilities of different bikes and motors stumped officials until they made it easy: no electric assistance allowed, period. Although that regulation may be revisited, similar motions will be considered in many town councils and state legislatures. To maintain our freedom of mobility, we need to play a part in these discussions.
The situation that concerns me most is transport of children. That is a uniquely emotional issue that biking critics will use to restrict cargo bikes on the grounds of safety. If I weren’t allowed to transport my kids by bike, at least half my bike trips would be eliminated, and it would then be difficult to justify the cost of my “car replacement bike.” Cargo bikes will eventually reach a critical mass, and there will be a significant outcry if their use is unreasonably curtailed. But at this point, I feel the industry is vulnerable to restrictions that might appear as reasonable compromises to non-bikers.
To avoid any sort of legal backlash, I believe we need to help the public understand the benefits and the realities of cargo biking. Sometimes advocates of a greener life style get a little too enthusiastic and the public gets over-hyped impressions of cargo bikes. For example, in the following video, a helmetless rider carries two kids (at least they have helmets) on a bike that the motor propels at “up to 30 mph” (well over the federal legal limit). Can you blame people for becoming alarmed when they see that?
Although I may be alone in this, I also think cargo biking will receive long-term benefits if we are careful to follow traffic laws – even the ones that don’t seem to take electric cargo bikes into account (read BikeForth.org’s counterargument here). If we flaunt the laws we don’t like and annoy 99.9% of the people with whom we share the road, we will have few friends to defend us when laws begin to restrict what/where/how we ride. I realize this advice goes against a cargo biker’s natural inclinations towards non-conformity, but if I can help my community embrace a slower-speed, greener, more sociable lifestyle, living within the rules is a small price to pay.
I worked in the computer industry for three decades, so I am accustomed to the furious pace of innovation associated with that enterprise. Even so, I have been surprised by the pace of development of electric bikes in general. While competition in the electric cargo bike category has been a little less fierce, it’s amazing that we’ve witnessed three generations of development in a little over a year.
The first generation of electric cargo bikes were do-it-yourself jobs. Customers had to pick a bike and a motor, put them together, and hope the marriage would be a good one. That’s what I did with my Rans Hammer Truck and BionX motor, and as you probably know, I’m pleased with the result. But there are quirks and compromises that I have to warn people about when they take my bike for a test drive. There are issues (like a non-existant gear) that wouldn’t be tolerable on a bike that was manufactured with an integrated motor.
I’ve written extensively about the second generation of electric cargo bikes. These are cargo bikes that come with an optional motor from the manufacturer, like the Kona Electric Ute, Yuba elMundo, and Trek Transport+. Each of these bikes is available in assisted or non-assisted versions. The motorized versions reduce the guesswork and installation labor compared to the preceding generation.
I’ve frequently mused what a third-generation electric cargo bike would look like. What if a manufacturer, instead of adding a motor to a non-assisted bike, decided to start from scratch and design a bike that integrated electric assistance so fundamentally that it defined the essence of the bike?
Several days ago, I got my first answer to this question from a Dutch company named Urban Arrow.
Urban Arrow
Let me just say it: I’m very excited about this bike. Just in case my exuberance gets ahead of my experience, I’d like to be clear why I’m excited about it. It’s not just about what the bike is, but what it represents: a preview of where I expected electric cargo bikes to be in another couple of years. If the company manages to sell this bike next year at their current price target, the market is maturing faster than I imagined. Either that or they are a little ahead of where the market opportunity is today. It will be fascinating to find out.
I will caveat my remarks by acknowledging that I’ve never ridden this bike or seen it in person. Since Seattle is pretty far from Amsterdam, I don’t know when I’ll have that pleasure. However, the Urban Arrow won an Innovation Award last month at the Eurobike Show in Friedrichshafen, Germany. So at least I’m not alone in my appreciation.
Without further ado, here it is:
Urban Arrow
Yes, it’s a front loader – the first with integrated electric assistance that I’m aware of. As I’ve said before, front loaders are common in Europe, but they look pretty strange to North Americans who may have never seen one in person. Despite the unusual configuration, a front loader is really what you want if you’re transporting young children. With a lower center of gravity, their wiggles won’t disturb the equilibrium of the bike as much. In a worst-case scenario, they won’t have as far to fall. It’s also comforting to have them strapped in a sturdy box and under their parents’ watchful eye. Furthermore, when the weather turns wet, you can do this:
Urban Arrow with cargo cover
I can’t imagine a kid who wouldn’t be thrilled to ride in that cozy compartment. There really isn’t a comparable way to shelter your kids on a longtail bike. The cargo box features a bench seat (which hides the removable battery), 2.5″-thick high density foam for comfort and safety, a grocery net, and even cup holders! The box can be removed to convert into a flat-bed cargo bike, although I’m not sure how simple that is to do.
Groceries and passenger in the box
Most front loader bikes are heavy – between 70 and 100 pounds, and that’s without a motor or battery. The Urban Arrow uses an aluminum frame to keep the weight under 100 pounds including the motor and battery. That’s not exactly light compared to the longtails I’ve reviewed, but it’s prepared to handle some serious cargo. The company claims it can carry up to 400 pounds in addition to the rider. As usual, I wouldn’t want to test those limits, especially coming downhill.
Although the company doesn’t refer to the angled seat stem and forward pedals as a “crankforward” design, it’s closer to the posture of my Hammer Truck than the other bikes I’ve reviewed. I’ve described the advantages of this design in previous articles, but perhaps the main advantage is reduced step-down height. You can get your foot on the ground while seated without tipping the bike and your cargo too far.
Motor and transmission
Daum crank motor and chain
The Urban Arrow is assisted by a 250-watt motor manufactured by the German company Daum. In previous articles, I’ve faulted the Electric Ute for using a 250W motor, which I felt was inadequate for carrying cargo uphill. But even though the power rating is the same, there’s a critical difference between these bikes: the Ute has a hub motor, which typically produces less torque at lower hill-climbing speeds. The Arrow’s motor is connected to the crank, and it drives the wheel through the transmission – just like your legs. If the motor is beginning to fade at low speed, you can simply shift to a lower gear to increase cranking speed and get closer to the motor’s optimum torque range.
Stoke Monkey motor
This idea isn’t new. Cargo bikers have been using Stoke Monkey motors to drive their cranks for years. But the Stoke Monkey requires an extra chain to drive the crank, and another extra-long chain to drive the rear wheel of a longtail bike. If you’re the type that likes to lubricate and adjust chains in your spare time, a Stoke Monkey might work for you, but it’s not a solution that is likely to appeal to the mass market.
The Urban Arrow’s design avoids another pitfall of the Stoke Monkey: shifting under power. If you’ve opened up the throttle on your Stoke Monkey and then try to shift, you have at least 2 times the strength of your legs ready to grind through your derailleur and gears. The Arrow uses a Shimano Nexus 8 transmission to dispense with the gears and derailleur. Besides easier and more reliable shifting, the Shimano hub allows you to shift even when you are stopped or under load. That makes shifting one less thing to worry about.
Urban Arrow in urban setting
Eight gears seems adequate with motor assistance. I have 21 gears on my bike, but I only use the top 3 or 4 of them when the motor is helping. However, if you want to carry cargo over hills beyond the bike’s battery range, eight gears might not be enough. The company claims an assisted range of over 30 miles, but I suspect those are relatively flat miles in Holland, not Seattle hills. Battery capacity is 36V at 9.5 amp-hours.
Like almost all the electric cargo bikes I’ve reviewed in previous blog posts (with the exception of the Yuba elMundo), motor effort is controlled through a torque sensor which measures how hard you are pressing on the pedals, and then kicks in a proportional amount of assistance. I prefer this method to a manual throttle. Twisting both a throttle and a gear shifter is more than I care to think about when I’m negotiating traffic and road hazards.
To comply with European law, the motor is only allowed to assist up to 15 mph. In my opinion, that is a bit conservative, but probably wise. Especially when people are carrying kids, we shouldn’t encourage them to exceed that speed.
The drive chain of the Urban Arrow is nicely enclosed to keep it away from clothing and small fingers. It’s a great feature enabled by the internal hub transmission. I would still like to ride a chain-less bike someday, but this is a nice step in the right direction.
Daum display
Assistance level and a wealth of other information is displayed on the large Daum control panel. Apparently, it will even measure your heart rate if you’re riding for fitness. A premium version includes GPS (for a premium price). That could be useful for rental bikes, letting the rider know where they are, and helping the rental company to keep track of their bikes. If a bike is stolen, the GPS unit can tell you where it is via SMS messages.
Brakes
Shimano roller brake
When I saw the first photos of the Urban Arrow, I was excited to see disc brakes on the front and rear wheels. A company representative soon corrected my false impression: the disc-like features on the axles are actually cooling fins for Shimano roller brakes. The company deliberately chose roller brakes rather than disc brakes to reduce the possibility of skidding. Having experienced the dangers of skidding with a heavy load, that sounds good to me. On the other hand, will these brakes handle the long, steep incline that heats my disc rotors to the point of scorching? I don’t think Holland has hills like that, so the performance of these brakes on steeper terrain is still a concern for me.
When you look closely at the front wheel, you see something next to the roller brake fin. At first I thought it was a hub motor: it’s nearly the same size as the Ute’s motor. But it’s actually a hub dynamo. It produces electricity as it spins. At first that seemed odd to me – you’re spending electricity on the back wheel to produce electricity on the front wheel. Fortunately, my contact at the company cleared up the mystery. They need the hub dynamo to determine how fast the bike is going so they can keep electric assistance within legal limits.
Lights
Excess electricity from the dynamo will be used to power the Arrow’s front and rear running lights. For increased safety, I’d be willing to accept a little drag on the front wheel even during daylight hours. I’m not sure what happens at night before you achieve sufficient speed to fully power the lights. I would be tempted to put Down Low Glow light tubes on either side of the cargo box to enhance visibility from the side in the evening.
Videos
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The video below shows the Urban Arrow carrying kids. It’s in Dutch with English subtitles.
The next video is a review of the bike by a Dutch technology reporter. Unfortunately, it’s all in Dutch with no translation. I included it here because it contains two interesting clips. In the first, the rider performs a U-turn with the bike. That’s one drawback of the front-loader design; the rod that turns the front wheel prevents sharp turns, so a short-radius U-turn requires some back-and-forth. The second clip compares hill climbing with and without motor assistance (he thinks that is a hill?!? ) I couldn’t hear any difference between the two, raising my hopes that the motor is as quiet as the company claims.
Price and availability
The company is aiming to start selling the bike in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2011 for around $3700. That’s at least $1000 more than the motorized longtails I’ve been reviewing, so that alone might narrow the market for this bike. On the other hand, it’s in the ballpark of similar front-loaders without a motor (like this Bullitt from Splendid Cycles). If you’re looking for a kid carrier, the Urban Arrow would be a good deal at that price. The rain cover will add about $250.
Price is just one factor that will determine the success of the Urban Arrow in the U.S. I’ve already wondered how this bike will perform on steeper hills, but there are plenty of places in the U.S. where the landscape is more forgiving.
I think the bigger question will be dealer support. If I were going to invest thousands of dollars in a bike like this, I would want a reliable and knowledgeable bike shop nearby who could maintain and repair the bike, when necessary. I’m guessing that few bike shops in this country would be familiar with Daum motors, and although Shimano is a well-known name, experience with roller brakes may also be sparse.
I’m hoping that some American bike shops will start selling the Urban Arrow and specializing in its upkeep. A really savvy shop could alleviate customer concerns by offering free pickup of a disabled bike. Even if the bike is your “second car”, getting its 8-foot length into or onto your first car could be a challenge. By way of comparison, loading my 7-foot Hammer Truck into our mini-van is pretty tight, even with the back seats removed.
Final thoughts
It’s ironic that a bike I’ve never seen has inspired me to write a longer review than one I’ve actually seen and ridden (like the Electric Ute). I’ve never felt comfortable writing about a bike that I’ve only met in cyberspace, but I’ve done it before when I felt it gave a better idea of the range of options and where the market is headed. That reasoning justifies this article because the Urban Arrow breaks new ground in several ways. It’s a harbinger of a new generation of bikes, and I’m excited about that possibility. I hope other third-generation bikes are around the corner rather than years away. If I get a clue, I’ll be happy to let you know.
The Urban Arrow is enough of a leap forward, I can’t stop myself from wondering what a fourth-generation bike would be like. In my opinion, the next major advance will be some sort of automatic transmission. As I’ve mentioned in a previous article, truly practical human-assisted transport will isolate rider effort from the terrain. Someday, a rider will pedal at a steady, comfortable pace, regardless of whether they are going uphill or down, and biking infrastructure in our cities will become more accomodating as riders of all ages and fitness levels discover they can participate in this revolution.
If nothing else, the Urban Arrow gives me hope that this vision is still achievable and on track.
The other lesson for my family is that we should stay off bikes when the temperature dips below 37 degrees Fahrenheit. I realize that people all over the world ride bikes in temperatures colder than that (we routinely did so in Copenhagen), but Seattle has some special considerations. Our hills, our minimal bike lanes, and the mixture of car and bike traffic are part of the difference. 
Speaking of transporting kids, I was recently introduced to a wonderful blog focused on carrying children on bikes: 
